Article #15: Nottingham Forest
Created by @BeesAnalytica
After the bitter disappointment of missing out on the Play-Offs on the final day, Forest will be looking to make amends this time around. With additions to both the coaching staff and added experience of quality Championship players, Lamouchi will hope they’ve finally found the successful formula to make another promotion/playoff push.
Set-Up
Last season, Lamouchi set up in a conventual 4231 system but with a heavy focus on creating attacking chances through the counter-attack, with Samba an excellent shot-stopper (preventing 5.54 xG, 3rd highest), Worrall in defence with Watson and Sow solidifying the middle of the pitch it gave Forest a perfect opportunity to use the excellence of Matty Cash and Lolley down the right as an outlet and break quickly on teams, aiming to get the ball to the experienced pros of Ameobi and Grabban who were arriving at the back post to capitalise. With Cash being sold to Villa, that attacking outlet has now gone, last season Ribeiro and Ameboi struggled to replicate that level of success on the opposite flank but with time in the offseason and the expectation that Cash was going during the window, Lamouchi would have addressed this area of concern and formulated a new attacking structure.
Defensively, as expected with a counter-attacking system Forest transition into a low defensive block with a 4 man defence and 5 man midfield protecting the space between the lines, this has proven to rather effective with Forest winning 11 games last season by 1 goal but isn’t completely sustainable (more on that later) but these solid defensive foundations give Forest a platform to build from and progress with their attacking structure.
Summer Additions
With concerns around Forest attacking numbers, they have made an excellent signing in Lyle Taylor who they believe is able to take them to the next level, as you can see below Taylor performed above excellently in all of the categories, especially the shooting element of his game.
Inspired by @Andywatsonsport
Elsewhere, he has looked at stregthen the nucleus of the side with Freeman, Bachirou and Colback all able to play a role in strengthing the midefild supporting Sow and Watson. Additionaly, the free signing of Blackett is a good piece of business for a verstile defender who can play across the back 4 and provide greater mobility out left than Ribeiro.
Lamouchi hasn’t just strengthened the playing squad but also brought in more of his support staff, whom he has a long-standing connection with many of them. With the Forest board fully backing Lamouchi they are fully expecting to be challenging once again for the promotion places.
Regression to the Mean?
From Boxing Day to the last game of the season Forest didn’t once leave the playoff places until they got knocked out in the cruellest of fashion with an own goal in the 96th minute putting them 7th in the end. As mentioned earlier, Forest dropping off was inventible, when using xG to evaluate their performance levels but they continued to defy the numbers and pressed on with what looked like a secure playoff spot though eventually, it ran away from them in the end. Using xG For and Against, you can see Forest sit just below average for xG against but are severely lagging in xG For by having such a large overperformance eventually you stop getting “lucky” and these tight 1-0 games weren’t going their way, in the case of Forest it couldn’t have happened at a more crucial period for them; in truth, their performances were massively unstainable for the majority of the season and inevitably regressed to the mean.
But there are signs to be optimistic for Forest heading into 20/21, they have solid defensive foundations that they can continue to build upon and get the new signings into the system straight away. Lyle Taylor is an excellent addition to the side, who will bring more mobility to Forest attacking options as well as the lethal touch in the box if they can get Taylor the service he requires. Lamouchi has address areas that needed improving upon to continue progressing this club forward and Forest fans will be full of optimism that they can finally look to returning to the PL.